Rafael Nadal vs Alexander Zverev
Rafael Nadal told everyone that his shock loss to Dominic Thiem at the Madrid Masters quarter-final was nothing but a small bump in his form. He told fans and betting sites all over the world that he will come back stronger, and Rome saw his dominance on the clay.
He took down all of his opponents with the poise befitting the “King of Clay” title. Fabio Fognini and Novak Djokovic made his trek to this year’s Rome Masters a lot more difficult, but he is still the dominant force that we just love to see sliding around the court.
Alexander Zverev has had a wonderful year on clay, but King Rafa is the biggest boulder that stands in his way from winning his third clay competition of the year.
Talking Points
Nadal’s defeat to Theim in straight sets was a huge blow for fans that were raving about his rankings in the ATP ladder. Due to his defeat, Nadal saw tough rival Roger Federer retake the top spot and the right to be called the world’s best. This sparked a huge commotion between rabid fans of the two tennis stars, but Nadal has a chance to reclaim the summit with a win against Zverev.
However, Nadal’s trip to his 10th Rome final was anything but easy. He struggled to get things going against Fognini, who took down Gael Monfils and Madrid runner-up Thiem en route to a more-than-acceptable exit in the Last Eight.
Djokovic didn’t make things any easier for the 31-year-old. The Serb is trying to regain the dominant form that he lost through a niggling injury, and his performance here was an indicator of what’s to come at Roland Garros.
Nadal traded blows with Djokovic, with the Serb making the most out of his first serves. He even got four aces in. However, Nadal clung to the skin of his teeth and managed to secure the tiebreak, 7-4. He then went on to win the second set in a more comfortable manner.
“It was a tough match,” the Spaniard said post-game. “Playing against him is always a challenge. I played a couple of bad shots serving for the first set. Against him, you always have to play at the limit of your game.
“This victory is a good confidence for me.”
The huge win for Nadal doesn’t escape Zverev’s eyes, with the young German admitting that he is the underdog in Rafa’s kingdom. However, it’s not like he’ll be facing the King of Clay without any chances of winning.
He showed crowds through the clay season that he is definitely one to watch out for. His latest match against Marin Cilic, the fifth-best player in the world, is a testament to how much he’s grown as a player over the past year.
His 7-6 7-5 win over the Croat is a notch to his impressive clay run this year, and Nadal will be his biggest test yet.
History
Nadal will be the barometer that will help online bookies discern whether Zverev is worth a risk when the French Open begins. While his stint at Monte Carlo was one riddled with full-set games, he then showed his quality in the following tournaments, beating strong competition like John Isner and Dominic Thiem in straight sets.
Meanwhile, there is little that needs to be said about Nadal’s impressive streak at clay this year. He took down a long-standing record by John McEnroe while winning in Monte Carlo and Barcelona. If it wasn’t for Thiem’s dogged victory over the Spaniard, the record could have extended well into the third round of the Italian Open.
Meanwhile, their match history provides an interesting picture. Their first meeting was at Indian Wells in 2016, where Rafa took down Zverev Jr. in straight sets. They next played each in the 2017 Australian Open, where the then 19-year-old took Nadal to full sets in a four-hour classic. Nadal won the contest then took him down on straight sets when they clashed once more in the 2017 Monte Carlo Masters.
Their last duel gave everyone a rough idea of how this matchup will end, but Zverev’s impressive year on clay puts a cloud of doubt on casual fans.
What are the odds?
The top betting sites still give Nadal the advantage as he is nearly impossible to beat on clay. Some even gave him odds as low as 1.58 after slapping Nadal with a -1.50 handicap. Zverev supporters get 2.35 for the same amount of boost, while Money Line odds offer an eye-popping 3.94.
What the 21-year-old needs to do here is force Nadal to take shots at very odd places. While that is easier said than done, his spectacular form on clay makes this task a bit more achievable. He also needs to look at what Thiem did to unsettle Nadal. While what Thiem did will not work this time around, he should get ideas on how to beat Nadal.
Rafa is a tough cookie to crack for any player that loves to play on the clay. Zverev knows that he is facing an insurmountable wall, but even the smallest of walls can crumble after a weak point is discovered.
The question now is whether Zverev will actually find that crack.
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Disclaimer: Odds are correct at time of publish.
