UEFA Nations League: Poland look for lift-off in Warsaw

Poland vs Croatia

Since being launched six years ago, a competition I branded as unnecessary and a series of glorified friendlies has actually gone onto deliver a series of UEFA Nations League highlights (incidentally, my views remain the same as they were in 2018).

What it does have in common with its more senior tournaments, however, is the short-term nature of the competition which means it only takes a few negative results and your nation cannot recover.

That is the situation facing Poland as they prepare to host 2018 World Cup finalists Croatia in Warsaw on Tuesday night.

For anything other than a home victory will leave the Poles with little if no chance of reaching the tournament knockout phase.

In a group also comprising Cristiano Ronaldo’s Portugal and Scotland, Poland were never expected to progress but it won’t stop Michal Probierz’s side from gunning for a scalp.

 

Talking Points

They weren’t fazed by Portugal in Warsaw on Saturday night when the ever dangerous Piotr Zielinski was on target in a 3-1 defeat, so they will be hopeful they can improve on that result against the Croats.

Croatia, themselves, aren’t exactly at their best but their experience means they keep churning out some good results, including their comeback 2-1 win at home to Scotland on Saturday when talisman Luka Modric, winning his 181st cap, gave his side enough control to lay the platform for victory, confirmed when Andrej Kramaric popped up with his 30^th international goal on his 99th appearance for the national team.

Manchester City midfielder Mateo Kovacic missed that game due to the birth of his child, although Croatia hope he will be able to take part in this one for a side who, while not the force they were at the last two World Cups, still have enough quality and nous to get the job done when it counts.

Poland, meanwhile, have a matchwinner of their own in leading appearance maker and goalscorer Robert Lewandowski who has 84 goals for his country to date.

With 84 goals in 155 matches for his country, Lewandowski has solely carried the hopes of a nation on his own for the last decade, during which time he has been a prolific marksman for Bayer Munich and now Barcelona.

The Barca frontman may even have a new attacking partner on Tuesday in Krzysztof Piatek. But he can’t do it on his own.

Poland, who remain without Bartlomiej Dragowski, Mateusz Skrzypczak and Kacper Kozlowski, currently sit in third place in their group.

If that is where they finish up, Probierz’s men would likely need to try and salvage their League A status via the relegation/promotion playoffs in the spring so, at the very least, a draw in this one should keep them clear of spirited Scotland who trail them by three points.

 

History

All the first four matches between these nations were friendlies, beginning a few months before Euro 96 when Elvis Brajkovic and Igor Cvitanovic were the goal-getters in a 2-1 win in Rijeka.

The Croat manager at that time was the impressive Miroslav Blazevic, Croatia’s ‘footballing father’ who passed away last year.

Of their six meetings to date, Croatia have won four of them, including the last two which have been competitive outings as opposed to friendlies.

At Euro 2008, Croatia rested a host of players yet still proved too strong for Poland as they won 1-0 to finish on maximum points in a group encounter and confirm their opponents’ early exit.

Future Bolton frontman Ivan Klasnic scored the winner early in the second half.

They didn’t meet again until last month in the Nations League when Modric – still going strong in Germany this summer despite their group stage exit – scored the only goal in Osijek.

 

Betting Tip

The SBOTOP Nations League betting odds make Croatia favourites but not enough to rule out a Polish win completely.

If you fancy a tidy pay day, then look at home options such as First Half 1X2 @ 3.64, First Half Asian Handicap +0.25 @ 1.65, 1X2 @ 2.98 and Asian Handicap +0.25 @ 1.95.

Croatia are on offer in a manner of appealing bets too, including First Half 1X2 @ 2.75, First Half Asian Handicap -0.25 @ 2.29, 1X2 @ 2.28 and Asian Handicap -0.50, also @ 2.28.

Another 1-0 Croatian success will pay out @ 6.80 with Correct Score, whereas if Poland are going to snatch a win by the same scoreline, you can get odds of @ 8.60.

I think there will be a few goals so have ruled out Total Goal 0-1 @ 2.79 but I don’t think there will be many to stake a claim on Total Goal 4-6 @ 3.75.

That is why I am plumping for another close encounter and, instead of Total Goal of 2-3 @ 1.97, will opt for a *** tip of 1X2 Draw @ 3.05.

   

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