Serie A Race For Top Four As Tight As It Gets

Bologna vs AS Roma

If you adopt the stance that Inter Milan, Juventus and AC Milan are favourites to finish in the top three positions in the Italian top flight this season, and then you consider that only four points separate the seven sides directly below them, the it doesn’t take long to work out why games like this could be crucial come next May.

As fifth placed Bologna prepare to host fourth placed Roma, separated only by goal difference, and reigning champions Napoli leading five other clubs hot on their heels, the gravitas of this fixture is certainly clear.

I said last summer that Serie A’s vulnerability makes it more competitive and it is proving to be the case and why it is so hard to predict contests like this – an encounter which could be full of Serie A highlights.

Talking Points

So much credit should go to Bologna who have been in superb form and have only suffered a single defeat since August, as they challenge for a European spot.

It’s even more impressive when you consider they are in the midst of an injury crisis with Riccardo Orsolini, Lorenzo De Silvestri, and Kevin Bonifazi all ruled out this weekend, joining Adama Soumaoro, Jesper Karlsson, Tommaso Corazza and Oussama El Azzouzi in the treatment room.

They come into this on the back of a 2-1 win at Salernitana, inspired by two goals in the opening 20 minutes from Joshua Zrikzee.

Not that Roma, juggling European exertions as they aim to go one better than last season, are in much ruder health.

They risk being decimated this weekend too after two red cards last weekend and two new injuries.

The Giallorossi were held to a 1-1 draw at the Stadio Olimpico by Fiorentina, finishing the match with nine men.

Nicola Zalewski was dismissed for a second bookable offence to receive an automatic one-match ban, meanwhile Romelu Lukaku received a straight red card for a reckless studs-up tackle.

Paulo Dybala and Sardar Azmoun sustained injuries in that encounter so are ruled out of this game, while Roma are waiting on the return to fitness of Tammy Abraham, Marash Kumbulla, and Chris Smalling.

Dybala went off with what has initially been diagnosed as a flexor issue in the thigh. He was replaced by Azmoun who also limped off with a suspected right calf strain.

Roma haven’t lost in their last five league games, recovering after their wobbly start to the season. Jose Mourinho’s side have also progressed in the Europa League, moving onto the knockout play-off against a team eliminated from the Champions League.

Bologna could be fresher as a result after a free week.

All in all, it should be close – two sides, level pegging and both affected by absences, the contest at the Stadio Dall’Ara could blow open the race for a top four finish even further than it already is.

History

This game ended goalless last season in mid-May, while a solitary goal from Lorenzo Pellegrini settled the contest in Rome earlier in the season.

There have only been three goals in their last five meetings.

Overall, Roma have enjoyed 17 victories to Bologna’s six with 10 draws.

Betting Tip

I was taken aback when I saw the hosts had the edge with the SBOTOP Serie A betting odds.

Then I looked at the table and noticed Bologna were level on points with the club from the capital and only behind them on goal difference.

With home advantage, Bologna are priced First Half 1X2 @ 2.99, 1X2 @ 2.42, First Half Asian Handicap -0.25 @ 2.44 and Asian Handicap -0.50 @ 2.42.

Roma can be backed First Half 1X2 @ 3.72, 1X2 @ 2.91, First Half Asian Handicap 0.00 @ 2.17, Asian Handicap 0.00 @ 2.28.

If you fancy goals galore, you can look at over 2.25 @ 2.25, total 0-1 @ 2.47, 2-3 @ 1.93 and 4-6 @ 4.56.

A re-run of last season’s goalless meeting is available @ 6.60 with Correct Score.

It is probably sitting on the fence somewhat and an easy option to go for, but I’m opting for honours even and a 1X2 Draw @ 2.86 as my ⭐⭐ tip.

 

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