Serie A: A ‘Six Pointer’ in the Stadio

Lazio vs Atalanta

Only one point separates the sides and both are chasing Champions League qualification.

In my opinion, however, only one of Lazio or Atalanta are likely to finish in the Serie A top four this term.

If that proves to be the case, this clash could well be crucial come the season end.

Talking Points

Both teams need to return to winning ways after suffering setbacks in their last outings.

Lazio took a brief lead at basement battlers Hellas Verona through Pedro before being pegged back by Cyril Ngonge.

There was even more disappointment for Atalanta who went down at Sassuolo and finished the contest with nine men which means Joakim Maehle and Luis Muriel will be suspended for the trip to the Stadio Olimpico.

Atalanta can take heart from their recent record in these clashes, however, and have only lost two of their last 11 league meetings.

Their inconsistency must frustrate manager Gian Piero Gasperini who will also be without Maehle’s fellow wing-back Davide Zappacosta (hamstring) this weekend, while Jose Luis Palomino is sidelined by a thigh problem.

Matteo Ruggeri is the man most likely to deputise for Maehle, although the visitors may be otherwise unchanged as Rasmus Hojlund and Ademola Lookman continue their promising partnership up front.

That would mean Duvan Zapata on the bench again. The Colombian striker has scored just once in the league so far this season but has the talent to create Serie A highlights against the best of them.

They also have Ademola Lookman, fresh from being named the Italian Players’ Union player of the month for January after the former Everton man scored five goals and provided two assists.

He is the latest attacker Gasperini has helped improve to take on the big boys of Italian football and is hot on the heels of Victor Osimhen at the top of the Serie A goalscoring charts with 12 goals, and three assists.

Certainly, the home team are favourites but Atalanta have overachieved and upset the odds regularly under Gasperini in recent years and their absence from European competition this season could help their bid to return to the Champions League via a top-four finish.

Lazio have yet to manage a league double over Atalanta since Gasperini took charge in 2016.

With the likes of Pedro and Ciro Immobile in attack – even though the latter has failed to find the net in his last four Serie A matches and is currently at his lowest scoring tally at this stage of the season for a decade – they have proven matchwinners.

Their captain should lead the line in an attacking triumvirate also featuring Mattia Zaccagni.

Felipe Anderson could be in contention for a starting berth and, a doubt over Danilo Cataldi aside, manager Maurizio Sarri finds himself in the fortunate position of having a virtually full squad available.

With only five points separating the sides placed second to sixth, matches like this could be considered ‘six-pointers and the outcome crucial.

History

Their most famous meeting came in the 2019 Italian Cup Final, a trophy Lazio won after two goals in the final eight minutes from substitute Sergej Milinkovic-Savic and Joaquin Correa sparked home celebrations in the capital and ensured they would not be beaten by the Bergamo Boys three times that season.

Since then they have met eight times and there have been some thrillers.

That included the following season when they shared six goals in Rome before Atalanta edged a five-goal contest at home.

Their meetings last season were also closely contested,

Atalanta showed real character to twice come back from behind with goals in stoppage time of each half as Zapata and Marten de Room cancelled out goals from Pedro and Immobile in a 2-2 draw.

The corresponding fixture last season ended goalless.

Lazio had the edge earlier this term as Mattia Zaccagni and Anderson sealed a 2-0 success in October to inflict Atalanta’s first defeat of the campaign.

Betting Tip

The SBOTOP Serie A betting odds give the home side the edge.

Lazio are available to tip 1X2 @ 2.38 and Asian Handicap 0.00 @ 1.76, while Atalanta are priced 1X2 @ 2.98 and Asian Handicap 0.00 @ 2.20.

For goals, over 2.75 will pay out @ 2.06, total goal 0-1 @ 3.75, 2-3 @ 1.96 and 4-6 @ 3.30.

A repeat of last season’s goalless fare is on offer with Correct Score @ 11.00.

The expected closeness of the encounter is best perhaps highlighted by the small difference between Double Chance Lazio or Draw @ 1.36 and Atalanta or Draw @ 1.53.

The 1X2 Draw has caught my eye @ 3.20 but, with the visitors missing key men through suspension, I’m edging towards a close win for the hosts and my *** tip is Half Time Full Time Draw Home @ 5.60.

 

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