La Liga: Who Wants to be Top of the Tree at Christmas Time?

Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid

The very brief winter break in La Liga is upon us, but not until a belter of a contest to round off the year. La Liga 2024 highlights should be guaranteed one way or another when Barcelona host Atletico Madrid on Saturday night. The top two in the table, separated only by goal difference, it’s not just this SBOTOP writer who is intrigued by what is due to happen.

 

Talking Points

It was not long ago that this didn’t even seem like a title battle. But the combination of Barca dropping points unexpectedly and Atletico building up a steady, if unspectacular, run of form means the gap – which stood at 10 points at the start of last month – has closed right up.

Take the last six league matches and Atletico have won the lot, while the Catalans have just one success and three defeats in the same period. Atletico climbed to joint top after a hard fought home win over Getafe on Sunday.

Since Diego Simeone rode into town at Christmas 2011, Los Rojiblancos have punched above its weight to the extent the club has become a genuine threat to the establishment. Many leading lights have been sold at times but perhaps Simeone’s boys are ready to mount a title challenge against the odds once more.

In Catalonia, a title challenge is the minimum expectation and the emergence of Lamine Yamal, following his Euro 2024 exploits, has many locals dreaming again. Yet the pressure should not be on a boy who only turned 17 in the summer and an ankle ligament sprain means he will sit this one out, and possibly a few other games in the new year too.

Using the example of Dutch midfielder Frenkie de Jong, yet to rediscover his best form eight months on from his last ankle injury, the teenager will want to ensure he has time to recover fully, and it’s reported that his participation in the Spanish Supercup semi-final against Athletic Bilbao on January 8 is also in doubt. It’s another concern for boss Hansi Flick, whose dream start to the job has gone awry in the past month.

After a fine start to the season, they have dropped 13 points from their last six matches and, interestingly, have failed to take a single point from games in which they have fallen behind: AS Monaco (Champions League), Osasuna, Real Sociedad, Las Palmas, and Leganes.

Flick and his players need a quick response to counter their recent struggles and bring some festive cheer, yet fewer opponents are more awkward than Atletico. Whoever is victorious will be top on Christmas Day. That should be incentive enough.

 

History

Barcelona have won the last five meetings in a row, a result which goes back to October 2021 when the then-defending champions Atletico ran out 2-0 winners, a game in which Luis Suarez, the player Barcelona let go for Atletico, scored alongside Thomas Lemar.

Atletico have only won three of their last 19 meetings, all over a couple of seasons, including a Spanish Supercup thriller at the start of 2020.

They will also remember fondly the Champions League quarter-finals in 2016, played at their former Vicente Calderon ground, when two first-half goals from Antoine Griezmann sealed a 2-0 success and a 3-2 aggregate win to send the holders crashing out after they had won the first leg 2-1.

Overall, Barcelona have triumphed in 36 of their 68 matches with 17 Atletico successes and 15 draws.

Joao Felix scored the only goal of the corresponding game last term, and he was on target again as Barca netted three without reply in the return in March when he was joined on the scoresheet by Robert Lewandowski and Fermin Lopez.

 

Betting Tip

Barcelona are clear favourites with the La Liga 2024 betting odds and can be tipped 1X2 @ 1.60 and Asian Handicap -1.00 @ 2.12. An Atletico triumph is on offer 1X2 @ 4.63 and Asian Handicap +1.00 @ 1.79, while the draw is an attractive option @ 3.85.

A repeat 1-0 home success will pay out @ 7.80 with Correct Score, whereas another option for a low-scoring encounter, Total Goals 0-1, is available @ 3.83. If you fancy a few more goals then look at Total Goals 2-3 @ 2.04, 4-6 @ 2.82, and Over 3.00 @ 2.13.

I actually think Atletico will end their miserable recent run against Barca and claim a draw in Catalonia.

   

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