AS Roma vs AC Milan
The all-Italian affair part two is heading to the capital Rome.
Roma hold the Europa League aces after a first leg 1-0 win, although neither they nor Milan will feel this tie is over.
The fact that the away goals rule no longer applies has changed the dynamic of some ties and I believe this meeting will be more attacking for it – or perhaps my long-held admiration of the ‘Catenaccio’ Italian defensive game will come to the fore again.
Either way, I expect Europa League highlights with a very domestic rivalry.
Talking Points
It’s hoped the hosts are not too traumatised by what they witnessed in Serie A on Sunday when their match with Udinese was abandoned following the collapse of defender Evan Ndicka.
Thankfully, the 24 year-old Ivory Coast player, who was taken off on a stretcher, appears to be in good health and he has now been discharged from hospital.
Although initial tests confirmed he hadn’t suffered a heart attack, Ndicka was kept in hospital overnight for further tests and observations with trauma to the chest causing breathing difficulties and pain in the torso.
This resulted in a collapsed lung and, naturally, the player will now be out of action for some time at the very least.
On the same day as Roma were in Udine, Milan were drawing 3-3 at Sassuolo – a result which cemented second spot in Serie A.
It was a contest in which they twice fought back from a two goal deficit with Rafael Leao, Luka Jovic and Noah Okafor the marksmen.
With the likes of Leao and Olivier Giroud in the team, Milan will always pose a threat, although they also have a tendency to concede away from home.
In Serie A alone, Milan have conceded 29 times in 17 away games this season, giving them the fourth worst away defence in the League, better only than Frosinone (37), Salernitana (36) and Sassuolo (33).
At the same time, it seems to represent a riskier approach when outside San Siro, as Milan are also the top scorers away from home in Serie A this season with 37 goals in 17 matches.
On Thursday night, midfielder Bryan Cristante is suspended for the hosts and could be replaced by Houssem Aouar, whilst Paulo Dybala will return to the starting line-up after being rested against Udinese. Sardar Azmoun remains ruled out with injury, but new boss Daniele De Rossi has an otherwise full-strength squad to pick from.
Milan coach Stefano Pioli has been handed a boost by the return to fitness of goalkeeper Mike Maignan, whilst defender Malick Thiaw is set to be available despite being forced off against Sassuolo.
They have suffered a blow, however, with fellow centre-back Simon Kjaer ruled out.
The importance of the first goal on Thursday could be key and, while I expect it to be close, that first leg advantage could be just enough to see Roma over the line.
History
Last week’s first leg success, courtesy of a Gianluca Mancini header, was the first time Roma had beaten Milan on their own turf since October 2017 in what was their first ever clash in European competition.
Milan have won both league meetings this season.
In September, a Giroud penalty and a Leao overhead kick won the day in the Stadio Olimpico before Leonardo Spinazzola reduced the arrears in the final minute.
Milan then recorded a 3-1 home success at the San Siro in January, courtesy of Yacine Adli’s first Milan goal, a Giroud header and a thumping strike from Theo Hernandez.
A Leandro Paredes penalty was all Roma had to show for their display.
Milan have traditionally had the upper hand in this heavyweight battle.
They have won 85 of their encounters, – I recalled one just as football resumed in the wake of the Covid pandemic in 2020 – Roma have enjoyed 49 victories and there have been a further 57 draws.
Betting Tip
The SBOTOP Europa League betting odds could barely be closer with Roam priced 1X2 @ 2.62 and Milan 1X2 @ 2.26.
Asian Handicap odds are also pretty close where you can back the home side 0.00 @ -0.95 compared to Milan 0.00 @ 0.77.
Another 2-1 Milan victory in the capital will pay out @ 8.68 with Correct Score, whereas a repeat of last week’s 1-0 Roma success is on offer @ 8.87.
I expect this to be tight and it’s not inconceivable the tie could go to extra-time.
I suspect Roma, urged on by their passionate supporters, will have the overall edge due to their 1-0 first leg triumph.
A SHORT EXPLANATION ON HOW OUR (⭐) BETS ARE WORTH:
⭐⭐⭐= €20 (HIGHLY CONFIDENT)
⭐⭐= €10 (CONFIDENT))
⭐= €5 (SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT)
Disclaimer: Odds are correct at time of publish.
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