Euro 2024: Top Spot is the Aim for France

France vs Poland

France are effectively through to the Euro 2024 Knockout phases but they can finish as Group D winners if they beat Poland at the Signal Iduna Park on Tuesday.

With back to back defeats the Poles are already out of the competition so, while Didier Deschamps’ team have a clear incentive, pride is all that’s left for the Poles to salvage. Two losses have condemned Michel Probierz’s Poland to an early exit and that’s a real blow to a nation which entered the competition on a good run of form and with plenty of optimism.

Les Bleus are yet to get out of second gear and, after a narrow win over Austria and a goalless draw with the Netherlands, they are in good shape but with some work to do to secure that top spot. France and the Oranje are locked on four points and with a +1 goal difference, and their rivals have an arguably more difficult task against Austria, who impressed in a win over Poland on Friday.      

 

Talking Points

France solid but waiting for a spark 

After narrowly beating Austria France’s meeting with the Netherlands brought together the two group leaders on Friday and that turned out to be another testing evening for Les Bleus as they drew a blank against a well organised Oranje defence. Antoine Griezmann uncharacteristically missed a tap-in as France largely dominated; though they were rather lucky to see a Xavi Simons goal ruled out for an infringement in the build up by Oranje wingback Denzel Dumfries.

Kylian Mbappe’s broken nose kept the skipper out of the clash with the Dutch and one goal from two games, an own goal courtesy of Austria’s Max Wober, is all France’s stellar attacking force has to show. Deschamps may be tempted to bring Mbappe back into the fold but he has a dilemma as the Real Madrid man, along with his former PSG team-mate Ousmane Dembele, is one booking away from a suspension.

At the other end of the pitch William Saliba and Dayot Upamecano have been superb at the heart of defence and the form of N’Golo Kante just in front of the back four has been sensational. 

The latest Euro 2024 betting odds rank France and Germany as tournament favourites with England, Spain and Portugal not far behind, so a top spot is a near imperative for the French. With that in mind I wouldn’t be surprised to see Mbappe re-introduced, with maybe Dembele dropping out. And, if Les Bleus are in a comfortable spot with an hour to go then Deschamps can then make changes to protect his key players.  

 

Poland first Nation to be eliminated  

It’s not a record that anyone wanted but Poland’s Friday night clash against Austria, a disappointing 3-1 defeat meant the Poles are the first team to be dumped out of Euro 2024. Barcelona star and Poland scoring sensation Robert Lewandowski started on the bench against the Austrians and, by the time he was introduced they were up against it. At 1-1 just after the break Poland eventually lost by two clear goals and though Kamil Grosicki should have scored late on it would only have been a consolation.   

The Poles were ahead in their opener against the Netherlands but succumbed to a late winner from Wout Weghorst and, while they have been in both matches late in the game, their Euro 2024 results simply have not been good enough and I doubt they are about to get any better.

So, with little to lose, Probierz will tell his team to play without fear and I expect Lewandowski will make a start, with Kryzstof Piatek, the scorer of Poland’s leveller against Austria, the man likely to make way.    

 

History

With four wins to one France have had the better of the heads to heads with Poland and Deschamps’ men won 3-1 the last time the teams met in the Round of 16 at the 2022 World Cup.

In terms of recent form Poland came into the tournament on a strong run of form with four wins, but have since lost twice; meanwhile Les Bleus are unbeaten in five, winning three and drawing two.  

 

Betting Tip

At SBOTOP odds of 1.27 France are fully expected to come to life on Tuesday, while the Poles can save some pride with a draw at odds of 5.22, or even a shock win at a price of 8.48.

But I expect France to have a steely focus in Dortmund and to win the battle at both ends; so for an alternative bet I’d go for 2-3 goals at 1.97 or a 2-0 France win at odds of 5.80.

   

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