Euro 2024: Rank Outsiders Ireland Aim for Paris Shock

France vs Republic of Ireland

Ahead of this Euro 2024 qualifier, I’ve been recalling the last time these nations met in France – a rainy night in Paris on the eve of the 2018 World Cup which, ultimately, would see Les Bleus go on to be crowned world champions.

At the time I remember praising the job of Irish manager Martin O’Neill and his assistant, Roy Keane, who achieved so much with a group of worthy but journeymen footballers.

I also recall saying how much I’d love to see the O’Neill-Keane axis given the opportunity to manage a more stellar group of players—similar to the national sides Keane played in and led during the 1990s and the early part of the new millennium.

Fast forward more than five years and the position has not changed, indeed it has been weakened further.

It is not being critical of the current incumbent, Stephen Kenny, who took on a thankless task when he was appointed in 2020 with his only senior experience to date being in his homeland, most notably at Dundalk where he enjoyed real success before taking the international under-21 job in late 2018.

To their credit, the Football Association of Ireland are backing their man, despite an unconvincing start, yet it does appear the boys from the Emerald Isle have plenty to do if they are to reach Euro 2024 – they currently have picked up just three points from three games and sit three points behind Greece in second place in qualifying Group B, and nine adrift of France.

Talking Points

If Ireland’s Euro 2024 qualifying highlights to date have been in short supply, this already difficult journey hasn’t been helped by the fact that teenager talent Evan Ferguson has been ruled out because of injury.

The in-form Brighton forward injured his knee during his club’s 3-1 win over Newcastle on Saturday.

Ferguson, 18, scored a hat-trick in that game and was expected to spearhead the Irish attack in the next two games.

The second of those is against Holland and, should Ireland lose both, they may as well kiss goodbye to taking part in next summer’s tournament.

The Netherlands, who host Greece on Thursday, are level with the Republic on points but have played a game less, with the top two qualifying for the

finals in Germany.

Without Ferguson, Kenny’s forward options consist of Norwich City’s Adam Idah, Preston’s Will Keane, Hull’s Aaron Connolly and Luton’s Chiedozie Ogbene.

Republic captain Seamus Coleman and forward Michael Obafemi were already ruled out of the trip to face last year’s World Cup finalists because of injury, while Wolves full-back Matt Doherty is suspended after his red card in defeat to Greece earlier this year.

All in all then, if Kenny’s men can pull off a shock in the Parc des Princes it will be a real triumph but, with last year’s World Cup finalists France sitting top of Group B with a perfect record from their opening four games, few are expecting such.

History

The first of 18 contests was a friendly in the French capital in 1937 which Ireland won 2-0.

Eire have won four of their meetings in total with five draws and nine French successes.

Not since a World Cup qualifier in 1981, however, have the Irish enjoyed victory.

On that occasion, an early own goal was added to by Frank Stapleton and Michael Robinson as the Irish, managed by Eoin Hand, won 3-2 at Lansdowne Road.

Their most recent clash, a qualifier in Ireland in March, was settled by a Benjamin Pavard goal.

France edged a Euro 2016 quarter-final, thanks to the brilliance of Antoine Griezmann, while the most infamous meeting of all came in a qualifier for the 2010 World Cup when a handball by Thierry Henry was missed/overlooked, causing much consternation across the football world.

The scorers that night in 2018, incidentally, were Olivier Giroud and Nabil Fekir.

Betting Tip

The SBOTOP Euro 2024 qualifying betting odds are firmly stacked in favour of the hosts.

France can be backed 1X2 @ 1.21 and Asian Handicap -1.75 @ 1.90, as well as First Half 1X2 @ 1.68 and First Half Asian Handicap -0.75 @ 1.96.

Ireland are well adrift with odds of 1X2 @ 7.60 and Asian Handicap +1.50 @ 2.21.

A draw is even unexpected, priced @ 6.20, and another 1-0 French win will pay out @ 5.00 with Correct Score.

Ireland’s best option could be to keep it tight for as long as possible and you can find odds of Total Goal 0-1 @ 3.55 and Under 2.50 @ 2.17.

That has crossed my mind but, realistically, I have to go with the majority as I cannot see beyond a French success. Therefore, my *** tip is France First Half Asian Handicap -0.75 @ 1.96.

 

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