Champions League: Big Guns Clash in City of Love

Paris Saint-Germain vs Bayern Munich

A repeat of the 2020 Champions League Final when a Frenchman won the day and broke Parisien hearts.

Now, on Valentine’s night, more hearts could well be broken in the city of love.

For that 2020 showpiece remains the closest the French champions have come to what many consider their holy grail and, as they prepare to face my tip for this season’s tournament, in my opinion they are actually further away from glory than they have been for some time.

How come you may ask.

After all, this is the club which has been able to buy a place at the top table of European football ever since it was taken over by Qatari investors QSI in 2011 and has made its presence firmly felt.

Yet even with the likes of Angel di Maria, Thiago Silva, Marquinhos, Neymar, Kylian Mbappe and now Lionel Messi in their ranks, Paris St Germain has fallen short over the past decade when it comes to Europe.

Talking Points

Now let’s be fair. The team has suffered a stroke of misfortune to be without its best player for this last-16 tie and it was a massive blow when it emerged  Mbappe had been ruled out with a thigh injury.

The irony will not be lost on Bayern Munich who were without their main man, Robert Lewandowski, when the two clashed at the quarter-final stage two seasons ago and the tie went the way of PSG.

Form wise, though, they are not in a good place either.

Indeed, after they went down to their second defeat in four days on Saturday night, defender Presnel Kimpembe apologised to the team’s fans through a megaphone.

The 3-1 reverse at Monaco in Ligue 1 followed a midweek loss at Marseille which saw them eliminated from the French Cup.

Not only is top scorer Mbappe out of the first leg at the Parc des Princes, but PSG coach Christophe Galtier is unsure if Messi will recover in time from the hamstring problem that ruled him out of the trip to Monaco.

All in all, it means the club from the French capital have lost three of their seven league matches in 2023 which is why only a minority of their supporters will be confident of Champions League highlights.

By contrast, Bayern seem to be coming into a run of form.

Their 3-0 home win against Bochum on Saturday maintained their one point lead at the top of the Bundesliga and, after three successive draws, was their third victory in a row – including an impressive outing at Wolfsburg last weekend.

That extended their unbeaten run to 19 matches in all competitions.

When you consider the Bavarians have reached the Champions League quarter-finals in 10 of the last 11 seasons, winning the competition for the sixth time in 2020, and that Julian Nagelsmann’s class of 2022/23 are the second-highest scorers (18) after Napoli (20) – and boast the joint-best defence (just two conceded) in this season’s competition – it’s easy to see why PSG have it all to do.

History

Aside from the 2020 Final in Lisbon, won by a Kingsley Coman goal, there have been some thrillers.

The following season, PSG edged out a Lewandowski-less Bayern on away goals after the two-legged quarter-final had ended 3-3 on aggregate – Mbappe with two of the PSG goals.

They also had three home victories apiece when they met in the group stages in 1997, 2000 and 2017.

Their very first meeting in this competition came in 1994, also at the group stage, when George Weah and Daniel Bravo scored in a 2-0 win in Paris before Weah scored the only goal of the return in Munich.

Overall, PSG have six wins to Bayern’s five with no draws.

Betting Tip

As betting odds go, these two teams could barely be closer – odds which are backed up by the closeness of their encounters.

For a PSG victory, the best options are 1X2 @ 2.50 and Asian Handicap -0.25 @ 2.23.

For a Bayern success, it’s worth considering 1X2 @ 2.56 and Asian Handicap 0.00 @ 1.99.

Then there’s the chance of a re-run of their last meeting two seasons ago when Bayern won 1-0 in Paris but went out of the competition on away goals.

That is available with Correct Score @ 13.50.

A 1-0 home triumph will also pay out @ 13.50 – again illustrating the closeness between these two.

Goal options to feature include over 3.25 @ 1.91 – which suggests there will be a fair few goals – Total Goal 0-1 @ 5.80, 2-3 @ 2.16 and 4-6 @ 2.35.

Ultimately, after 11 meetings, I think it’s about time these two had a draw.

 

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