Can Saints Overcome EFL Cup Mismatch?

Southampton vs Manchester City

You don’t need to catch a glimpse of the SBOTOP EFL Cup betting odds – although I suggest you do – to know this is a mismatch on current form.

Southampton are bottom of the table, without a league victory since mid-October and now up against the reigning champions – a side they have managed to beat just once in the past 15 attempts.

What’s more, with respect to their new boss Nathan Jones, who deserves time after replacing the harshly sacked Ralph Hasenhuttl, they have a rookie in charge at this level of football and have consistently been forced to sell their best players for many a year.

So, presumably, this EFL Cup tie will be a one-sided one. Or will it?

Talking Points

In one sense, the hosts have nothing to lose.

Few, if any fans and pundits, expect them to lay a glove on Manchester City.

Last week, they fell to a sixth successive league defeat (against Nottingham Forest) and stayed at the foot of the table.

Then on Saturday, in the third round of the FA Cup, they lacked cohesion for spells at Crystal Palace before capitalising on a second-half error to book a place in the fourth round.

That was only Jones’ second victory since he took charge in early November – the other was in the previous round of the EFL Cup – so perhaps the pressure is off a little in the cup competitions, a factor which could help them on Wednesday night on the south coast.

Perhaps I am clutching at straws though, especially when you saw the performance City delivered against Chelsea on Sunday.

After all, there is no comparison between the resources of the two clubs.

City, now in the 15th year of the Abu Dhabi project, have been boosted not merely by the extent of the resources that have been invested but the intelligence with which that money has been spent.

By contrast, the home side have predominantly been a selling club from Gareth Bale to Luke Shaw, Sadio Mane to Virgil van Dijk.

In recent weeks, Southampton have been booed off by their own supporters on more than one occasion which suggests patience is wearing thin, even accounting for the fact Jones has taken on quite a task and has barely had time to settle.

On a potentially brighter note, they have today agreed a €14 million fee with Racing Club to sign Carlos Alcaraz, with the 20 year-old Argentina youth international set to sign a deal until 2027, although he won’t arrive in time for this tie.

With a passionate crowd behind them, the Saints are capable of achieving far more as they have shown already earlier this term when they fought back against a resurgent Leeds.

However, they will be facing a very different level of team this week and if they are to create EFL Cup highlights it will be a monumental achievement.

History

Traditionally, this has been an evenly matched contest.

City have 40 wins to Southampton’s 32 with a further 27 meetings ending all square.

However, Pep Guardiola has won 11 and drawn three of his 15 matches against Southampton since taking over as boss in 2016.

Last season, both league meetings ended all square.

It was goalless at the Etihad in what was the first goalless league encounter in Manchester since May 1966 at Maine Road in League Division Two.

A few months later and the champions were indebted to an Aymeric Laporte equaliser after Kyle Walker-Peters had fired the Saints ahead.

City have won twice against them since then, scoring four on each occasion.

In the FA Cup quarter-final last March, Raheem Sterling, Kevin de Bruyne (penalty), Phil Foden and Riyad Mahrez were on target as the spirited Saints were eventually seen off 4-1.

Then in October, City hit four goals without reply at home in the league with Joao Cancelo, Foden, Mahrez and Erling Haaland the marksmen.

The only time Southampton have defeated City in the past 15 attempts was in July 2020, in a game played behind closed doors (due to Covid restrictions) when a Che Adams goal separated the sides.

Betting Tip

The difference is clear given Southampton are priced 1X2 @ 10.50 compared to City @ 1.25.

Likewise, with Asian Handicap odds, options include Southampton +1.50 @ 2.20 and City -2.00 @ 2.21.

If there can be a repeat of their 1-1 draw from the league encounter last season, then Correct Score is on offer @ 12.00, whereas a repeat of their FA Cup clash is available @ 13.00 (1-4).

I expect a fair few goals and odds to consider include Total Goal 0-1 @ 5.00, 2-3@ 2.06, 4-6 @ 2.35 and Over 3.50 goals @ 2.33.

I have to go for City to prevail.

 

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