Bundesliga: Can Lightning Strike Twice in the Black Forest?

SC Freiburg vs Bayern Munich

A top four Bundesliga clash and a repeat of a match-up which has just caused a stunning result in the German Cup quarter-finals – there’s no doubting what the match of the day will be in the top flight this weekend.

Bundesliga highlights have generally been hard to come by for Freiburg whenever they have faced the giants of Bayern Munich.

Yet now, after winning at Munich in the cup, can lightning strike twice as they welcome the champions to Stade Europa-Park on Easter Saturday afternoon?

Talking Points

The top four-chasers from the Black Forest will certainly have their dander up after they stunned the Bavarians on Tuesday, thanks to a second-half stoppage-time penalty from Lucas Höler.

In a shock defeat for the Bundesliga leaders, Hoeler sent keeper Yann Sommer the wrong way to book their spot in the last four.

Bayern, fresh from Saturday’s 4-2 league win over title rivals Borussia Dortmund which returned them to the summit, took a 19th-minute lead when Dayot Upamecano rose high to power in his header from a Joshua Kimmich corner.

Yet Freiburg kept finding ways to attack and an unstoppable 20-metre missile from Nicolas Höfler drew them level.

Then with seconds left on the clock, substitute Jamal Musiala handled in the box and Höler stepped up.

Musiala is easing back to full fitness and may actually start this weekend, while Noussair Mazraoui could return from illness.

For Freiburg, who have gone from one-time minnows to established top-flight force under Christian Streich, successive draws from winning positions against Mainz and Hertha Berlin have left them four points behind third-placed Union Berlin so they could do with a positive result to stay ahead of the chasing pack for a top four berth.

Although underdogs, Freiburg have become a popular side among supporters of other teams – often seen as the quaint outfit from the Black Forest in an enchanted corner of Germany who never really posed a threat.

However, that is changing as they prove you can progress your way to the top of the game and upset the apple cart.

If they achieve such a shock for a second time in less than a week, they would receive acclaim far beyond Germany and add another twist in the 2022/23 title race.

History

Freiburg may be flying but they just cannot beat Bayern in the league.

Earlier this season, for example, they were blitzed by the Bavarians as Serge Gnabry, Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting, Leroy Sane, Sadio Mane and Marcel Sabitzer were on target in a 5-0 victory.

Then there was this match-up last term when a late show proved key.

After Leon Goretzka and Nils Petersen traded goals, Gnabry, Kingsley Coman and Sabitzer found the net in the last 17 minutes to seal a 4-1 win.

That was a match which had an eventful conclusion as Bayern briefly played had 12 men on the pitch.

The DFB’s sports court quickly ruled that the head referee and his officiating team were responsible for the mix-up and that was that.

Bayern have won six of the last seven league meetings, the exception proving to be a 2-2 draw in this fixture in May 2001.

In fact, before the cup tie, Bayern had won 19 of their last 25 matches with five draws and a sole Freiburg success.

That came in May 2015 when Petersen notched an 89th minute winner – a match played after Bayern had clinched the Bundesliga title.

Betting Tip

After their cup triumph, can Freiburg now stem the tide of defeats in the league?

It is clear they will want to make amends for a disappointing home draw with Hertha last weekend, while Bayern may have one eye on their forthcoming Champions League quarter-final.

Yet the desire to impress a new manager will surely ensure avoid any complacency.

Bayern are firmly backed with the SBOTOP Bundesliga betting odds – 1X2 @ 1.44 and Asian Handicap -1.50 @ 2.31, a distance from the hosts 1X2 @ 6.00 and Asian Handicap +1.00 @ 2.16.

Goals have been plentiful in meetings between the sides and the odds reflect that, including Over 3.25 @ 2.17, Total Goal 0-1 @ 5.00, 2-3 @ 2.13 and 4-6 @ 2.72.

For those optimistic this could be a good time to play Bayern, then it is worth considering Double Chance Freiburg or Draw @ 2.51 and 1X2 Draw @ 4.10.

A repeat of last season’s 4-1 away win is on offer @ 17.50.

 

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