FSV Mainz 05 vs RB Leipzig
That both sides need a Bundesliga win for different reasons makes this a Sunday encounter to intrigue.
Mainz could do with building more of a buffer between themselves and 16th place – the automatic spot for a relegation play-off.
RB Leipzig need to stay in fourth spot if they are to hold onto a Champions League berth, not to mention maintain their outside hopes of a title challenge.
So, it’s with every optimism that I feel we could have Bundesliga highlights to look forward to at Opel Park.
Talking Points
The return to competitive football last week, following the hiatus caused by Covid-19, brought mixed results.
Mainz earned a creditable 2-2 draw at Köln having been 2-0 down before clawing themselves level through Taiwo Awoniyi and a fine solo goal from Pierre Kunde Malong.
Leipzig also drew but they would have been disappointed by only securing a point at home to Freiburg. That could have been worse had Freiburg not seen a last-gasp goal denied for a marginal offside. On saying that, Freiburg netted with their only effort on target.
That result, coupled with Bayer Leverkusen’s dismantling of Werder Bremen as well as Borussia Monchengladbach’s quick-fire victory, means they slipped from third to fourth place and are just a point clear of Leverkusen.
Mainz will aim to make life more difficult this weekend and they have gone three matches unbeaten for the first time this season.
Likely to be without goalkeeper Robin Zentner for the rest of the season, Florian Müller is set to continue to deputise and striker Jean-Philippe Mateta is available again after suspension.
Injured for much of this campaign, Mateta looks to be playing for a move away, having confirmed his intentions to leave the club this summer. How the Frenchman could do with finding the form he showed when he first joined the club two summers ago. Then, he scored 13 goals in his debut season, a record for a Frenchman in the German top-flight – beating the likes of Jean-Pierre Pain and Franck Ribery.
One side which does not have a problem scoring is Leipzig who put eight past Mainz without reply when they met earlier in the campaign.
Julian Nagelsmann’s side have already scored as many goals as they managed across last season in its entirety (63), indeed four more would break their club-record 66-goal return of 2016/17.
The in-demand Timo Werner remains their star man, even if his goals have dried up a bit of late, perhaps because he has dropped further back to accommodate Czech Republic striker Patrik Schick, on loan from Roma.
Schick hit the ground running with seven goals in his 16 games, although he was on the bench last time out.
Dayot Upamecano missed last weekend’s draw with Freiburg last weekend due to suspension but is expected to return.
Leipzig’s form in 2020 has generally been excellent.
They are unbeaten since January, drew at leaders Bayern Munich in the league and comprehensively knocked Tottenham out of the Champions League with wins in both legs.
In those three games, they didn’t concede once.
Given the league run-in effectively starts now – with all fixtures confirmed for the remainder of 2019/20 – it’s important Leipzig claim all three points in this one if they are to match their ambition.
History
Leipzig have dominated this fixture since it was first played in 2016. The two sides have only ever faced each other in the Bundesliga, with Leipzig winning four of the seven meetings.
The most recent was far and away from the most convincing as the Red Bulls embarked on an 8-0 rout, a day last November when Werner led the way with a hat-trick.
Having also claimed two draws, Mainz’s only ever victory over Leipzig came in April 2018, when they dispatched the side then managed by Ralf Rangnick 3-0.
On that occasion, late goals from Alexandru Maxim and Bote Baku, following a Pablo de Blasis penalty, sealed the points.
The corresponding fixture last season was a six-goal thriller as Mainz fought back from 2-0 and 3-1 down to rescue a point.
Betting Tip
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FSV Mainz 05 vs RB Leipzig | Total Goals 4-6 @ 2.44 |
| May 24, 21:30 (GMT+8) |
The SBOBET Bundesliga betting odds make the away side firm favourites.
You can back them 1X2 @ 1.46 with Mainz offered @ 6.40 and the draw @ 4.40.
With Asian Handicap odds, Leipzig -1.50 is available @ 2.28, in contrast to the hosts Mainz + 1.00 @ 2.25.
A repeat of last season’s 3-3 draw can be backed with correct score @ 65.00.
That won’t happen again but I do think Leipzig will return home with all three points in a high scoring encounter.
A SHORT EXPLANATION ON HOW OUR ( ) BETS ARE WORTH: |
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| = €20 (Highly confident) |
 = €10 (CONFIDENT) |
= €5 (SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT) |
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Disclaimer: Odds are correct at time of publish.
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