Bundesliga: Dortmund Keen to Avoid Another Hoffenheim Howler

Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund missed a glorious opportunity to gain ground atop the Bundesliga table as they threw away a two-goal lead in a thrilling 3-3 draw against leaders RB Leipzig in midweek.

The BVB can’t afford another setback when they go and visit Hoffenheim. Die Kraichgauer finally snapped a winless run with a 2-0 win against Union Berlin in their midweek matchup.

The Bundesliga 2019 betting odds point to a Dortmund away victory. But Hoffenheim are quite familiar with Dortmund’s tendency to surrender big leads and will be eager to break BVB hearts once more.

Talking Points

Hoffenheim back to winning ways

Hoffenheim picked up their first win in over a month as they disposed of Union Berlin, 2-0. Goals from Ihlas Bebou and Christoph Baumgartner were enough to see them past the newly-promoted side.

Prior to that win, Hoffenheim had gone winless in their last four, with three losses and a draw. That includes some heavy defeats against Mainz (1-5) and Augsburg (2-4). And before that, they went on a terrific run of Bundesliga 2019 results with five consecutive wins, which began with a huge away win at Bayern Munich.

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The Hoffenheim defence has been quite leaky this season. They’ve shipped 27 goals in 16 games, with 18 of those coming in eight games. That home defensive record is tied for the second-worst in the league.

Hoffenheim successfully kept a clean sheet against Union, which is their first since a 3-0 win against Paderborn on November 1. However, doing so against Dortmund will be significantly more difficult to achieve.

And to add to Hoffenheim’s concerns, their attack has been nowhere near as potent this season without star manager Julian Nagelsmann. Leading scorer Andrej Kramaric, who had 17 goals last term, has had a slow start to the season and has just four goals thus far.

Dortmund attack remains potent

Borussia Dortmund will be kicking themselves for not grabbing all three points against leaders RB Leipzig. As predicted in our preview of the match, it was a high-scoring affair.

Dortmund took a 2-0 lead at the half thanks to goals from Julian Weigl and Julian Brandt but were pegged back by a Timo Werner brace.

Jadon Sancho quickly restored their lead, but Leipzig substitute Patrik Schick was on hand to supply the equaliser.

The match was indicative of Dortmund’s season thus far. Their attack, led by captain Marco Reus and Sancho, remains one of the most potent in the entire league. But even after switching to a back-three, their defence remains their huge liability.

However, it should be noted that Hoffenheim’s attack will not be nearly as dangerous as Leipzig’s, so the Dortmund defenders should have a much easier go of it.

Meanwhile, their revitalised attack which has scored 12 goals in the last three games, should fancy its chances against a Hoffenheim defence which has been subpar thus far this season.

Sancho, in particular, has been in sensational form of late. With his goal against Leipzig, the English teenager has now scored in each of his last seven appearances for Dortmund and has also gone for games on the bounce with a goal and an assist, which is truly outstanding.

Bundesliga: Jadon Sancho scored Borussia Dortmund's second goal against RB Leipzig — Borussia Dortmund players celebrate their second goal versus RB Leipzig

However, it remains to be seen whether the Englishman will feature against Hoffenheim after he suffered some cramps late against Leipzig. Perhaps this is a match where manager Lucien Favre will opt to give his prized youngster a break.

History

Dortmund and Hoffenheim drew both of their matches last season, and their second meeting in Dortmund particularly noteworthy. Dortmund were 3-0 up and seemingly set for another victory. But then Hoffenheim stormed back with three goals in the last 15 minutes to snatch a point in a 3-3 draw.

However, Dortmund still hold quite a significant edge over Hoffenheim in terms of recent results. Before the two draws last year, Dortmund had won six of the last 11 meetings between the two, with four draws and just one Hoffenheim win.

Betting Tip

	Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund	Borussia Dortmund Asian Handicap -0.75 @ 1.95
	December 21, 03:30 (GMT+8)

SBOBET odds have Dortmund as overwhelming favourites at 1.74 on the 1X2 market to win, with Hoffenheim at 4.30. Meanwhile, a third consecutive draw between the two sides is priced at 3.80.

I don’t see a draw going down, though. Instead, I foresee Dortmund bouncing back from their setback against Leipzig to record a rather comfortable win.

The 1X2 market doesn’t offer much value, so go with the Asian Handicap instead. A bet on Dortmund at -0.75 would still get you half your total winnings even if they win by just one goal. But I predict a much bigger margin of victory for BVB away from home.