Croatia vs Scotland
After reaching the final of the 2018 World Cup, Croatia are now on the cusp of crashing out of Euro 2020 in the group stage. The struggling Croatians just about kept their qualification hopes alive by drawing against the Czech Republic, but they now face a must-win situation in their Group D finale against Scotland.
The Scots are similarly in need of all three points to stand a chance of reaching the Round of 16, but they are one of just two teams who have yet to get a goal through the first two matches of the tournament.
A draw would likely doom both countries to an early elimination, so despite their attacking struggles, they must find a way to score.
The Euro 2020 betting odds still have the canny Croatians as slight favourites, but Scotland will have home advantage at Hampden Park for this crucial clash.
Talking Points
Croatia finally need attack to click
Croatia kept their hopes of qualifying for the knockout phase alive with a 1-1 draw with Czech Republic. Ivan Perisic got the team’s first goal of the tournament as he equalised after Patrik Schick scored his third goal of the tournament from the penalty spot to give the Czechs the lead.
Croatia coach Zlatko Dalic changed his formation to a 4-2-3-1 against the Czechs, bringing in winger Josip Brekalo for midfielder Marcelo Brozovic with the hope of jumpstarting an attack that did not threaten much in their 1-0 defeat to England. However, it hardly made much of a difference as the Croatians could only muster two shots on target against the Czechs.
Croatia must now throw caution to the wind since they need to beat Scotland in order to make it to the round of 16. But it remains to be seen whether Dalic has the tools to fix his team’s weakness upfront. Ante Rebic has had a disappointing tournament, and they don’t have a proven goalscorer to call upon off the bench.
Croatia still have a capable midfield led by Luka Modric and Mateo Kovacic. But their primary plan of attack is to send crosses into the box, and they have been unable to replace Mario Mandzukic’s ability to get on the end of those headers.
It seems unlikely Dalic will dramatically alter the way his side plays at this stage, which means they might continue to struggle creating good chances on goal.
Scotland strikers must step up
Scotland will count themselves a bit unlucky to still be scoreless two games into Euro 2020. They had 19 total shots in their opening game against the Czech Republic, which they lost 2-0.
And they gamely competed in their goalless draw against England, where they even had the edge over the talent-rich Three Lions in both total shots (11-9) and shots on target (2-1).
But Scotland’s big problem for years has been the lack of a clinical striker who can score goals on a consistent basis, and it continues to be a glaring concern.
The hope is Che Adams can be that player moving forward, but while the Southampton striker did well to get off five shots against England, it was still disappointing that none ended up on target.
Scotland have been so positive with their style of play in this tournament, and that should not change in their must-win match against Croatia. They will continue to create chances in search for goals. The big question is whether they are capable of converting their chances.
Meanwhile, Scotland’s 3-5-2 system looks well-suited to defending the penalty box from Croatia’s many crosses as well as neutralising Croatia’s control over midfield.
History
Scotland and Croatia have faced off just five times in total, and the Scots are undefeated in those five matches. After drawing their first three meetings, Scotland have won each of their last two matches, both of which came in 2013 during the qualifying stage for World Cup 2014.
Scotland won 1-0 in Zagreb thanks to a Robert Snodgrass goal, then won at Hampden Park 2-0. Snodgrass again scored, while Steven Naismith sealed the win with a second-half strike.
Betting Tip
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Croatia vs Scotland | Scotland Asian Handicap 0.00 @ 2.13 |
| June 23, 03:00 (GMT+8) |
Despite home advantage, SBOTOP odds have Scotland as slight 2.83 underdogs. Croatia are favoured at 2.38 to win, while a draw is priced at 3.25.
While it’s true that Croatia have more class and quality players in their squad, they have not shown it all that often during this tournament and have been particularly lacking upfront.
The same can be said of Scotland’s strikers, but the team has at least played with a bit more intensity. With home support cheering them on and a spot in the knockouts on the line, I suspect the Scots might just be able to raise their game and get past Croatia.
A SHORT EXPLANATION ON HOW OUR ( ) BETS ARE WORTH: |
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 = €20 (Highly confident) |
= €10 (CONFIDENT) |
= €5 (SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT) |
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Disclaimer: Odds are correct at time of publish.
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